Chicken littles see apocalypses on every horizon even though they dont understand the technology at all. "I can imagine this destroying the world" is their justification. Even though their "imagination" is 16x16 greyscale.
Or are you trying to make some anthropic argument around survivorship bias.
what if we're first?
or FTL travel isn't possible in our universe?
P(what if we're first?) ~ 0
P(or FTL travel isn't possible in our universe?) ~ 1Special relativity.
I think there’s a strong possibility there may be “gray goo” all over the place, beings far bigger than us we’re inside of, physics that sits “parallel” to ours in whatever you’d call “space” in some construction we can’t comprehend, etc.
In short, I think the universe seems empty precisely because it’s distant, both evolutionarily and in terms of physical space.
Donald Hoffman’s been talking about a lot of stuff pointing in this direction.
A paperclip maximiser is simply an AI with an unconstrained goal that has unintended and bad consequences for us when taken to an extreme.
It does not need to be something that could function exactly like a human without having consciousness.
I can see an argument that PZs are incoherent by construction, but I'm not sure why a PM is. Can you explain why you think that is so?