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Comment by justinzollars | Hacker News Reader

I think Ukraine will ultimately lose because it's not in the West's strategic interest, while it is in Russias. Russia's history is also pretty dark and they are paranoid of invasion. It makes no difference to our lives who governs Ukraine. It's horrible what has happened to the Ukraine and the Ukrainian people are fighting valiantly.

An invasion of Taiwan on the other hand would have a huge and immediate effect on our lives. We could in an instant be cut off from Semiconductors and would likely respond with a trade embargo with China who makes everything.

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> It makes no difference to our lives who governs Ukraine.

The occupation of Ukraine signals Russia's intention to do the same with other countries they occupied in the past (Poland, Romania, the Baltic countries, &c) which are now part of NATO.

If you think Article 5 should be honored, then it does make a difference.

> The occupation of Ukraine signals Russia's intention to do the same with other countries they occupied in the past (Poland, Romania, the Baltic countries, &c) which are now part of NATO.

None of those countries have ever been officially mentioned as the "red line" by Russia, except Ukraine. Article 5 doesn't apply to Ukraine, and it doesn't allow for preventive military measures on non-alliance territories just because "there's a signal" somewhere outside.

The four variables are:

a. Ukraine's will to resist

b. NATO's will to supply military arms

c. Russia's will to continue the operation

d. Russia's economy

Of those, I'd bet (d) fails first.

Nazi Germany (which was economically mobilized for total war) showed you can only keep the economic house of cards going for so long. And the Russian economy is not the German economy (then or now), nor has mobilized for wartime.

It looks like it's doing okay, and the Russians loudly claim so and point at the Chinese and Indians buying crude and gas, but we'll see how long the veneer of "okay" lasts.

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