> Germany replaced nuclear pretty much 1:1 with solar + wind.
In other words, instead of fully removing coal by nuclear, they replaced nuclear with solar+wind.
In other words, instead of fully removing coal by nuclear, they replaced nuclear with solar+wind.
How fast they did and could have weaned off coal is another question. I don’t know how fast they could have if they had kept the reactors running, perhaps more perhaps less. The energy market is a very dynamic system and one should avoid overly simplistic models and predictions.
We could just as easily be arguing that Germany could have spent it’s excessive GDP to fund green infrastructure projects in poorer countries, and there for prevented even more green house gasses from polluting our climate. By several factors greater than by cleaning their domestic energy production. But they didn’t, so why would we talk about it?
Starting point: nuclear + coal
Option 1: nuclear + renewables
Option 2 (selected): coal + renewables
While this is true, that yes, Germany didn't replace nuclear with coal directly, the delta between option 1 and 2 (which was the choice made) is (-nuclear, +coal).
I’m not aware of any specific policy about coal (which would be a justifiable criticism of German energy policy which has nothing to do with nuclear) but coal is down nonetheless even as nuclear power plants are being shut down.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Energy_in_Germany#/media/File:...
Above it was stated that Germany replaced nuclear power with coal. We both agree this is false. So what are we arguing about now?
I disagree right here. The coal was reduced insignificantly, definitely not sufficiently to reach any climate goals. The reduction of the nuclear energy prevented that. Due to the latter, Germany simply has insufficient energy generation to fully exit coal, although they could probably do it, if chose nuclear.
> We both agree this is false. So what are we arguing about now?
I argue that, in the big picture, the consequences are the same as if Germany replaced nuclear power with coal.
A reduction from 45% to 30% of the whole German energy market in less than a decade is certainly a sizeable reduction, I would even call it significant. However I agree it wasn’t sufficient, anything above 0% is insufficient, we are in a climate emergency after all. But I fail to see how keeping the nuclear powerpants open is a guaranteed strategy while faster rollout of renewables isn’t. We have proof of the latter, and we also see different energy markets such as France where the renewable rollout is a lot slower, and so is coal reduction.
This is a false dichotomy. Nuclear powerplants should not have been stopped. See also: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=26603464.
a) Coal did not replace nuclear power
b) Coal was reduced during a policy to shut down nuclear power
c) The policy to shut down nuclear power has nothing to do with coal
The first two are facts you can see in the data. The third one is a matter of simple policy. If it were up to me I would have replaced this policy with. “Nuclear power will be shut down as well as all coal power plants”. The data seems to suggest this is possible.
Looking at different energy markets whether they decided to keep their nuclear power plants (like USA) or to do away with them (like Germany) coal is down everywhere. Nuclear policy seems completely irrelevant to coal usage. What seems relevant is renewable policy and coal policy. Countries which have a policy to reduce coal do so faster, countries that have a green energy policy replace coal with green energy, and countries that don’t (like USA) replace coal with gas.
From the data, what I can gather, is that nuclear policy is simply a decision about country’s willingness to keep operating these plants. Germany didn’t want to so they got rid of theirs. If a country wants to get rid of coal, they do so with a different policy. Alas Germany has a renewable policy, so you see that the nuclear power was replaced with wind + solar. And now that the nuclear plants are all gone, we shall see coal increasingly being replaced by these two power sources in the coming years.
Between 2021 and 2022 Germany's share of electricity from Nuclear declined from 12.6 to 6.3%, coal increased from 30.2 to 33.3% [0]
In a hypothetical scenario where Germany didn't reduce nuclear generating capacity what do you think is the likeliest amount of electricity generated from coal?
a. higher than 33.3%
b. lower than 33.3%
If you think that answer is (b) than decision to shut down nuclear did indeed increase coal usage as compared to hypothetical 2022 with nuclear not closed
If you instead think that answer is (a) I would be interested in hearing the reasoning.
[0] https://www.destatis.de/EN/Press/2023/03/PE23_090_43312.html