That's not an interesting thing to measure. The paper talks about it in terms that make it sound like it's a close proxy for whether GPT-4 "knows" how to do things in MIT coursework, by writing misleadingly about "fulfilling the graduation requirements" and having a "perfect solve rate." But in fact it's totally different. The result is that a bunch of people hear about this paper and get fooled into thinking that there is new interesting evidence about GPT-4's capabilities, unless they manage to read closely enough to see what actually happened.
It's not a matter of whether the results would get weaker if repeated, it's a matter of the results being totally disconnected from any useful real-world information about what GPT-4 can do, or how it can do it.
I haven't been in research for a while, but I don't think that's how peer review works. You don't always have to assume the paper's claims (especially ones as novel as this one's) as a null hypothesis, and providing a compelling refutation.
The detection of sloppy question framing, and answer feeding via the few-shot learning examples, and the problems with checking with GPT-4 itself reasonably show that there are serious flaws in multiple parts of the experiments described in the paper.
> The real conclusion is "we think the paper's results might be weaker if repeated" and that's a good result on its own.
No, they don't know enough to say that. The paper's results might be better with better experimentation! Or they might be totally false.
The conclusion they provided is accurate precisely because it focuses on the methods and not the conclusions, like this:
> One particularly worrying trend is the technique of evaluating a model’s accuracy using a language-based model like GPT-4. While a useful tool, its conclusions should never be overstated or treated as ground truth.
...and this:
> Additionally, it is extremely important to reevaluate every data point and perform basic sanity checks before using data at all, whether for training, inference, benchmarking, or something else. Given the small size of the dataset in question, a simple manual validation would have been easily within the scope of the work.
If I said "2 + 2 = 4", and then gave a flawed proof, it is not your job as a debunker to prove that 2+2 != 4.
Their null hypothesis is that this paper provides sufficient and proper evidence to prove the original claim. And to that end, it seems like they've done a good job at pointing out enough serious deficiencies that - regardless of the original hypothesis's truth - the original paper cannot be used to prove it to be true.
Directly from TFA. Though, this does make the title somewhat click-baity. But they definitely don't claim the opposite.
Not surprising when you have undergrads calling a seemingly reputable paper almost fraud. I certainly can not blame them for the tone.
But, you know, I'll try that as a rebuttal the next time a reviewer rejects my papers. "Reviewer #2 has not rejected the null hypothesis" :P
> Which invocations run in parallel? (Assuming there are enough cores.)
No context is ommitted, that's the entire question.