Comment by throwaway2037 | Hacker News Reader

Comment by throwaway2037 | Hacker News Reader

Parent Full thread

I agree: It is mind-blowing -- the cost, but the science is also mind-blowing. This stuff really is science fiction. When I was a kid, I could never imagine it was possible. Think how primitive computers were 30 years ago. All of these bio-breakthroughs are impossible without staggering amounts of compute and improved laboratory hardware.

My thinking: How long for each divide-by-ten step? 1M USD today, 100K USD next, 10K USD later. At 10K USD, for these life threatening diseases, it is a drop in the bucket. Any insurance company would pay for it, because it would easily save many times more in avoided treatments for the illness.

Think about the revolution that 3D printers brought. I could see something similar for custom DNA vaccines. They should be targeting wealthy people who want cosmetic effects, like hair regrowth, less wrinkles, hormones like a 30 year old, etc. They can pay, and it will help to mature the industry and production pipeline.

If the rate of price-decline of DNA sequencing is any referece: it took 14 years for the price of that to be devided by 100.000.

So 3,5M USD cost now would be 35 USD in 14 years (not taking into account any hyperinflation that I think is likely in that same time-frame).

    hyperinflation that I think is likely in that same time-frame

What a laugh. Every time I see people talk about economics on HN, the level of discourse is so poor and uneducated. "[H]yperinflation" - you mean like Weimar Republic where people needed wheelbarrows of money to buy a loaf of bread? Forget it. It is the stuff of fantasy. You would have a constitutional crisis in any modern democracy before it got that far. Look at the Oil Crisis(es) in the 1970s. Inflation got so out of control that Central Banks needed to jack up rates to nearly 20%, but they won. No wheelbarrows of money. We had nothing even close since then. (Here it comes: "Oh, but this time is different!" No, it isn't. So many people forget what _some_ inflation feels like. It's been 30 YEARS without inflation over 1% in Japan and it has mentally stunted the economic thinking and planning for multiple generations.)

If I could, I would sell "insurance" against hyperinflation all day long. Like taking candy from a baby; it would be such easy money. For example, write options on Fed Funds rate at 25%. You can pay me your option premium all you want.

The cost has nothing to do with the cost of sequencing DNA. DMD is extremely rare and expensive. The gene therapy itself is very cheap. The cost of the drug is entirely due to the value it provides.

The company is already talking about upping the price to $12 million.

To be fair, research isn't free. If the total addressable population of sick people is very tiny, then the fee needs to be enormous for each person. I am OK with some kind of rich gov't programme to negotiate and pay this fee. After R&D is paid for, plus some handsome profit, the fees can drop and we can export to developing countries.

I'm not criticizing the cost at all. It's a deadly disease that ravages people's bodies and over a lifetime costs tens of millions. Even $12 million seems fair.

Just pointing out that genetics getting cheaper has no effect here.

In principle, these costs could be 1000x less. Much like minicomputer -> dell price shift.

Reply on news.ycombinator.com