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Comment by philwelch | Hacker News Reader

...assuming the launch vehicles are good to go.

> All told, Amazon has purchased 77 launches: 38 Vulcan launches, plus nine flights on ULA's soon-to-retire Atlas V, 18 Ariane 6 rockets, and 12 New Glenn missions, with a contract option for 15 more.

All three of the new launch vehicles have seen repeated delays. Also note that Vulcan and New Glenn both use Blue Origin's BE-4 engine.

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I will bet a nice, cold beer that some of those satellites end up riding to orbit on top of Falcon 9 rockets. Too much has to go absolutely right for them otherwise.

No doubt this will irritate Jeff to no end. I hear he’s not a big SpaceX fan.

I would be shocked if this happened unless Amazon’s hand was somehow forced by shareholders. Even if none of the rockets fly when Amazon expects them to, it’s more likely for Amazon to quietly drop the whole project than go to SpaceX. It’s going to take years of delays for Amazon to realize that their launch partners aren’t gonna work out, and by then the market opportunity will be over.

Frankly, the whole satellite deal always smelled like self-dealing to me in the first place.

> Also note that Vulcan and New Glenn both use Blue Origin's BE-4 engine.

One of those engines destined for Vulcan's maiden flight exploded during qualification testing recently.

I think a lot will have to go right going forward for Amazon to reach the July 2026 deadline for half deployment.

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