I think you're right about this, and benchmarks we've run at Anyscale support this conclusion [1].
The caveat there (which I think will be a big boon for open models) is that techniques like fine-tuning makes a HUGE difference and can bridge the quality gap between Llama-2 and GPT-4 for many (but not all) problems.
[1] https://www.anyscale.com/blog/fine-tuning-llama-2-a-comprehe...