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To be fair, the odds that the people behind that are still at the company are <<50%

I think that the better base rate would be stories from Tesla, etc. Of which I imagine there are many (I don't have time to keep up with specifics)

To be fair, the odds that the people behind that are still at the company are <<50%

IOW, if any lessons were learned, the folks that learned those lessons have a >50% chance utilizing what they learned at another company.

So, yeah, expect the bait-and-switch.