50:50 maybe. I made it through with a 10oz can of Zippo lighter fluid once. Didn’t realize it till I got home from the airport.
I'm not talking one of those small, spherical smokebombs. No, this was one of those 5" long, 1" diameter sticks, and it was by itself in a pocket of my netbook bag, which didn't have room for much else, so it's not like the xray image would have been confusing.
Seems like tons of other people have had similar experiences.
TSA's impact on safety is largely imagination and wishful thinking.