Not surprisingly, this story doesn't pass my smell test either. It's very light on details. It also talks a lot about the thoughts in Bill Gates' head, but fails to provide any quotes to back them up.
Which is a big shame I think because I'd be very interested to know more about the TRON project and how it compared to other OSes of the day. I went to the Wikipedia page, https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/TRON_project, which unfortunately suffers from the same semi-ridiculous bias: "The project's goal is to create an ideal computer architecture and network, to provide for all of society's needs." Who writes shit like that?
Quacks do. That's a good way to know a quack - they are often too greedy for their own good. If you see a remedy which cures common cold, cancer, rheumatism and autism, all with no side effects whatsoever - you know it's bullshit. If you have somebody who can do anything, and be excellent at it - you have a con man. If you have a software system that is ideal for any use - it's a scam. Real good things always have requirements and limitations, and the more complex the goal is, the more requirements and limitations there are. If my career in software taught me something is that one of the basic principles is "the right tool for the right job", and there's no tool that is perfect for every job, and can't be.
Now it's way behind the curve. PCs and accessories that I've not seen in UK/US stores for over a decade. Fax machines are still a thing and sold new.
But outside of such curiosities, it's interesting looking at where Japanese tech has sunk.
The Japanese can't bear to stock Samsung/LG televisions for reasons of national prime one presumes. So there are a bunch of locally branded televisions that seem antiquated - a far cry from the era where Sony held the crown for top end displays.
The PC vendors from Sony Vaio to Toshiba/Dynabook are gone or diminished. The consumer electronics/home electronics that once were interesting look increasingly dated given the Japanese obsession with putting lots of confusing buttons on their products instead of cleaning up the user experience (Japanese toilets are a great example of this... press the wrong button and get violated!)
And of course the camera section of BIC Camera is perhaps the most interesting predictor of where Japan's tech industry is headed. Sure the latest Canon, Nikon and Sony mirrorless cameras are amazing feats of engineering. The problem is that the cameras in phones have become so good that for 99% of the market, the camera in their phone is more than sufficient. So the Japanese camera vendors have become and will continue to will become increasingly niche. Of course the DJI drones next to the camera section offer capabilities the mirrorless variety can't match. So even more of the Japanese core tech industry will get eaten by China.
Pair all of the above with 260% debt to GDP (which is insanely insane even compared to the US/Europe), a population demographic pyramid showing not just an aging population but one that's rapidly declining and an economy that seems build on smoke and mirrors (go into any 7-Eleven and see unbelievably low prices for convenience groceries compared to any US/European store). Such businesses are part of what I'm told is an extensive network of zombie corporations that are run at a loss, subsidised by the banks in order for the banks to get aid/subsidies from the Japanese Government.
Then there's Toyota. Once a clear leader in both fossil fuel and hybrid cars that now has to issue press releases about future battery tech that isn't even close to production. They lag behind both Tesla and the European electric car vendors in actual offerings. Likewise Nissan's electric offerings look increasingly uncompetitive between their shenanigans getting their former non-Japanese CEO thrown in jail.
If these aren't enough - look around Japan outside of the 5 major cities. So much of the mid tier and smaller parts of Japan have been starved of cash. Cities built at the peak in the 80s and 90s with no signs of new development in 20-30 years.
My conclusion: Japan Inc. is a Ponzi scheme that Bernie Madoff would have loved to have conceived, veiled in superficial politeness intermingled with lots of courteous smiles and bows.
FWIW I live in a "mid-tier", depopulating city in Japan, and there's been a ton of development. We got a bullet train 12 years ago, and since then we've gotten like 2-3 large new modern hospitals, 3-4 new large fancy shopping malls (replacing old dilapidated shotengai), big new beautiful parks, an expensive decade-long tunneling roadworks to reduce congestion, lots of roadworks and constant, constant construction of new modern condos replacing old buildings and single-family homes. We also now have so much solar they're paying home consumers to use excess generation on sunny days.
Compared to a similar-sized city I'm from in Europe, it feels like we've being lavished with money. And it makes sense - this is where all that debt is coming from!
Perhaps go to China if you are looking for tech unlike what you find in the west.
It makes me want to share a story about an additional piece of perspective on what happened with Japan.
I worked for a CEO in the early 90s who was midwestern ex-WallStreet-analyst deeply concerned about American manufacturing competitiveness (and Japan). A little bit after Japan’s market crash he told me in astonished tones “They have chosen not to let anyone go under! They will be (economically) stagnant for 30 years!”
It was for me a profound moment of awareness of the different cultures of US vs Japan. And my boss’s words showed themselves true in the years since. But it was not at all a surprise at the time that Japan would make such a choice; a society where corporations’ obligations to employees and vice versa were much stronger than in the US and s culture of saving face was much deeper. Not so the US culture of Schumpeter’s creative destruction and bankruptcy. What was astonishing was the scale of the choice and impact on their society, glimpsed in a moment.
Chinese culture is different. I predict their current trials will turn out differently. And they have studied hard the lessons of Japan. But I don’t know enough about Chinese culture to know how they will cope with market-crash-type phenomena. Will they silently absorb the losses, or let things go under, or do something completely different? Or maybe choose deliberately lower growth for a while in an attempt to chart a middle course? We will see.
A few points I'd like to make regarding your assumptions and my view of Japan, which I'm not claiming is fully correct, but has a different perspective to offer:
a) I'm not an expert, but Japan's debt is mostly domestically owned (companies in Japan, Bank of Japan, et cetera) and they hold huge reserves in foreign currencies. Economics is more complicated than a simple debt figure, and I'm not well informed about the details, but the ratio of "debt to GDP" by itself isn't the holy grail as far as I know. Devil's in the details. It's a huge problem, but not as large as the number by itself indicates.
b) Japan is self contained. They have a unique self contained non-extremely-western-poisoned culture, an aging population without relying on immigration, their ethnicity makeup is 98% Japanese (I'm sure them being an island, the language and culture barrier are a factor). Find that bad or good, but I think there's something to that, and I think it's important when discussing their culture or their country.
c) Japan is a paradise for geeks, regarding how many possessions are treated and treasured. You've seen outdated tech and thought it was bad? I'm here ordering old consoles, games, dvds, books from Japan and the condition "slightly worn" from a Japenese seller is the American equivalent to "As good as new, perfect condition". Japan is a paradise for cameras, old game consoles, hard to find hardware, watches, ... arcades you wouldn't be able to find in any other country because they've given way to "the times" in other countries... you see a fax machine, or I guess potentially minidisc player, a discman, old cassette player... sold as "new" and think it's bad? I'd love the fact and buy all of them...
d) Toyota is one of the top 10 companies by revenue in the world, still one of the largest car manufacturers, and famous (among other Japanese companies) for efficient and world pioneering management techniques... Japan has the third highest GDP and ranks 19th in the HDI... is it maybe too soon to sing their demise?
Not picking a fight, but from my perspective your comment comes off as condescending, culturally biased and close-minded... Deriding a whole country/culture/economy because of how you interpreted certain things while visiting...you're citing Japanese toilet buttons as an example for their technological demise given their bad UI (having buttons)? Should it be voice controlled, have a touch panel, connect via Bluetooth to your smartphone and have its own bespoke App, offer fancy usage statistics...
You were there for months and this is your cynical take? How could I, as an outsider applying a similar spirit to yours, rate China (censorship, the CCP, inequality, corruption, certain infrastructure projects, technological tracking), the US (politics, cultural crazes, depression, high school system, prison system, weapons, policing), Europe (immigration and identity crisis, EU, ...), Russia/Ukraine..., Mexico, Brazil,...
This is meant to illustrate: a cynical take is easy to come by...
On (a), depends on whether you subscribe to the view the Modern Monetary Theory(MMT) is sustainable or a dangerous experiment that has unknowable consequences.
(b) Japan lacks natural resources (mineral, oil/gas etc.) and is hugely reliant on exports to keep the domestic economy running.
(c) There's a lot of cool stuff at a cultural level if you're a geek. Geeks are alas a small percentage of the population and that cool stuff is often kind of cool because it is a snapshot of the past. Not sure the curiosities are enough to keep the show on the rails.
(d) This one amused me. I recall IBMers talking about how IBM was one of the top companies by revenue right before it entered free fall and gave the tech industry to the modern tech giants. Kanban, Just-in-time manufacturing etc. were interesting and have their place. But something's gone wrong with the Japanese mindset. The thinking that produced interesting innovation back in the 70s, 80s and maybe even early 90s seems to have given way to a stagnant way of thinking that's evident everywhere you look. There's niches of creativity in things like anime but the innovation in technology and in process improvement that once enabled the amazing growth that Japan saw seems to have given way to a rigid way of thinking and a culture of just following the once innovative processes instead of continually improving them.
As for the voice controlled touch panel, probably not - but could the functions be simplified to less buttons and a more intuitive UI, for sure... unless you've embraced or complacently fallen into a culture of stagnation.
On your points re: China, they're innovating in ways Japan can only dream of without the fanfare or buzzwords. It's why most of the products we buy come out of Chongqing or Shenzhen. There's stuff wrong with China for sure but they're knocking it out of the park economically compared to Japan that's kind of riding the train over the cliff.
Re: The US etc., everywhere has issues but Europe/The US does not have the observable stagnation that can be witnessed in Japan. That's not about condescension but about looking at what I see with an open mind and not being afraid to make critical observations based on what I see before me.
I'd suggest Japan might be something of a warning for us in the West - if we stay complacent, keep worrying about superficial stuff that doesn't matter and let the core economic/innovating metrics trend in the wrong direction for too long we risk getting into a similar muddle.
Natural resources aren't a good predictor of economic success. In fact, most resource rich countries seem to suffer from the "resource curse".
> but the innovation in technology and in process improvement that once enabled the amazing growth that Japan saw seems to have given way to a rigid way of thinking and a culture of just following the once innovative processes instead of continually improving them.
To be frank, I think they were just as rigid back then - if not more so. The only real difference was demographics and an asset bubble. As their population ages, they stop spending. Lower spending means lower income for companies who then slash R&D and new product development. It's visible in other sectors too like entertainment, not just technology. Jpop today is a shadow of its former self.
> China, they're innovating in ways Japan can only dream of without the fanfare or buzzwords.
The same thing that happened to Japan is happening to China now - end of demographic dividend, popping of asset bubble, ... China is likely to stagnate the next few decades. The only difference is Japan got rich before things went south while China is still climbing that ladder.
> Re: The US etc., everywhere has issues but Europe/The US does not have the observable stagnation that can be witnessed in Japan.
Again, it probably comes down to demographics. The West is willing to import people to keep their population rising - possibly at the expense of social stability. The Japanese decided to "go down with the ship" and just deal with the fallout as it comes. China ... doesn't really have much a choice but to go down with the ship. Who the heck is going to immigrate there?
But I’ll address toyota - unlike ibm they make a product that is well regarded and not in any danger of being supplemented- while they dropped the ball on ev for hydrogen their existing hybrid tech means “drop in a bigger battery and call it a day” - I think comparing them to imb is a poor comparison at best
And there are many other companies doing quite well in Japan so you shouldn’t be focusing one just one
Not sure transitioning from hybrid to EV is just a case of drop in a bigger battery. That was kind of the point I made before. From toilets to EVs, the mindset is about preserving the once advanced status quo instead of actually continuing to do “continuous improvement”.
For all the adherents of Kaizen in the West or the apologists for what Japan once was, perhaps it would be wise to question why the place has managed to lose its edge across a range of metrics for multiple decades.
At a higher level, I didn't read manxman posts as saying Japan is some sort of tech hellscape, or that their previous high-flying tech companies are all dead, but I think it's pretty easy to argue that innovation in Japan has seriously stagnated over the past 2 decades. I left another comment where I listed tons of Japanese tech I used to have in my (US) house - now I have almost none.
Regarding Toyota, I strongly disagree with "unlike ibm they make a product that is well regarded and not in any danger of being supplanted". I had a Toyota which I loved (it was crazy reliable) for nearly 2 decades that I replaced about 7 years ago - with an EV, and have since bought another EV. I just went to Toyota's website and they only offer a single all-electric EV, the "bZ4X", which I honestly have never heard of. You say it's as easy as "drop in a bigger battery and call it a day" - well, why haven't they then? Toyota is going to get killed in the EV market, which in not too long will be the entire auto market.
I live in a small Japanese city of 40k people, and your comment is... way too gentle. Yeah, outside of the major cities the infrastructure was never very good to begin with, and now is seriously decaying, which combined with the extremely chaotic Japanese urban development results in a level of ugliness that is pretty much unthinkable in a normal developed country. But the worst part is that you tell the local people, and nobody seems to care or even realize that something is wrong.
It really looks now like it’s demographics. This is just the sort of amazing thing that countries with a young well-educated workforce and a below-50 managerial class can accomplish. Now we’re all in the age of the gerontocracy, with Japan Inc. leading the way. Even the United States, ostensibly the most societally agile nation in the world, can’t seem to find political leaders who aren’t in comas or don’t suffer micro-seizures in public.
PlayStation is still going strong, and Nintendo, too, but it's really amazing to see how much has changed in such a short time period.
I do take issue with your conclusion, though: "Japan Inc. is a Ponzi scheme that Bernie Madoff would have loved to have conceived, veiled in superficial politeness intermingled with lots of courteous smiles and bows." I don't think it's really much different than modern capitalism basically being a Ponzi scheme that depends on ever increasing population. Japan just hit it a lot earlier than other places because (1) they had such a massive asset bubble in the late 80s, and 34 years later the Nikkei is still well below its peak in the late 80s, and (2) they experienced population decline well before most other advanced economies - their population peaked in 2010.
Edit: Oh, and I used to own a Toyota, too, which I loved and had for nearly 2 decades. Until I replaced it with an electric vehicle.
The Japan models were the old Sony and they always had completely different (and much better) hardware than the models in any other country. IIRC the W900 was the attempt to merge Japanese hardware with Ericsson software and the UI was way smoother and it was the only SE device for years that would record QVGA video instead of QCIF.
I think this perceived requirement is the result of efforts to undermine or corrupt capitalism to preserve the interests of incumbents at the expense of innovation.
Innovators are always starting at zero and have literally a world of opportunity ahead of them irrespective of whether the world population is growing or declining.
Apple’s growth and value creation was never about chasing user numbers as the first order priority. Instead they built an ecosystem where they delivered value to a small user base and then got that user base to buy into more product categories and services. Those users also evangelise to others more than most. That delivered massive growth that has been buffered against age/population demographics.
Alas Apple seems to be getting into maintaining value over doing real innovation now so maybe their decline is coming, but it’s interesting how the Japanese tech world has not been able to break out of the old ways of doing things and largely doesn’t seem to have learned from the advances in User eXperience that we’ve made in the past couple of decades.
As for PlayStation and Nintendo, true for now but that space is about to move to VR. Enter Meta and Apple but also DJI with interest VR headset control of their drones. I don’t see the Japanese with a credible response to these impending shifts either.
Those shows were fun to watch, but most of it didn’t scale up and ended up as vapourware.
Surely it's the other way around, companies only get this big and powerful by abusing their power, and probably politicians helping them (if only to boost a private share portfolio) instead of adding for the people?
So if your political system works (applies morality to business, favours the demos over corporate power) you're not going to get these sorts of mega-corporations. Not sure if IBM fit that category, but Apple and Microsoft seem to.
Granted it's not Wikipedia's point, but it also makes their article's hard to digest at times.