It is intended to shame Republicans. What other possible reason is there to tie death rates to political party? So yes it was a hot take. You planted a lightning rod. Making something like vaccination a political issue does everyone a disservice.
That said, certain Republicans should very much feel shame about the fear mongering behind the vaccine. It isn’t automatically a hot take or a lightning rod to use statistical analyses to suggest that systemic fear mongering against a vaccine that has a powerful effect would lead to excess death.
The vaccine long ago became a political issue, but the real world need for people to take it doesn’t go away because of that.
Then you aren't paying attention to what the Republican party stands for. Moral relativism has limits, and the Republican party now regularly acts with malice.
You can pin a lot on nate silver, but vaccination as a political issue is a thing he's studying, not a thing he caused.