A blind monkey throwing darts will beat the S&P 500 some of the time.
The problem isn't that it's impossible to beat the S&P 500 (it's actually trivial), the problem is it's hard to predict which portfolio will outperform the S&P 500.
The problem isn't that it's impossible to beat the S&P 500 (it's actually trivial), the problem is it's hard to predict which portfolio will outperform the S&P 500.
Idk if that's true but you're not saying what percentage one would expect to see instead
I also think monkeys are the wrong example here because aren't they at even odds with the index? 50% of them, assuming they take no bananas for their service and assuming they don't get to make more trades than the index does, should have beaten the index, if my currently-half-awake brain is working correctly
I'm not sure that's the argument being made, but if so, it's a terrible argument.
I'll let the statisticians figure out of randomly ~50% should beat index or not.