We've long crossed the point where renewables are dependent on incentives to make them economical. IEA is known for their conservative predictions. So, them saying that this might be true means it's basically a done deal and that they can no longer deny this is happening.
Other side effects of recessions and fossil fuel price induced inflation include increased price sensitivity for things like oil and gas. Those things suddenly getting very expensive are a main driver of people wanting to reduce their dependence on those things.
I don't get your vehicle emissions formula. How does the years of service reduce the emissions when literally every mile you drive them blows more emissions out of the tailpipe? If anything, that only gets worse for older vehicles because their engines wear out and the fuel efficiency drops. Tail pipe emissions are gigantic for these vehicles. This is not reduced in any way by the years of service. Any year you drive these things longer, you add to that. It's a cumulative effect. You drive 15000 miles in an old car in a year doing 10 miles to the gallon (which would be very nice for an old car), that's 1500 gallons of fuel in a year. That's a lot of CO2 emissions and other pollution. Add to that oil changes, new parts, etc. And it only gets worse.
And the economics of this are that have to buy that fuel. Every year. Depending what state you are in that could be as much as 5$/gallon. So, 7500/year. The economics of that are pretty terrible. Adds up to a new Tesla Model 3 in about 5-7 years basically. That's excluding maintenance of course. Also not nothing for an old car.