I wouldn't say that we're on the verge of an inflationary crisis because we've been in one, which we do actually have tools necessary to try to thread the needle. However, China, Japan, and the US commercial real estate market loom ominously over proceedings (and also that one thing no one is thinking of).
> and also that one thing no one is thinking of
Don't vaguepost. If you've got something to say, say it.
It's actually about 20-30% since 2020, if you measure the way they used to. People at the bottom are hurting, but the goal is to prevent full institutional collapse, so they get sacrificed in a slow walk to stabilization that risks hyperinflation, versus just getting it over with and starting on a recovery.
>a less damaging one than going full Volcker.
Well, a lost generation or two begs to differ.
>Don't vaguepost. If you've got something to say, say it.
Unknown unknowns. I have no idea where a hypothetical sucker punch is coming from because it's a sucker punch.
Well you might want to know that shadow stats doesn’t actually recalculate inflation using old methodology, it adds some constant factors.
Even a conservative government estimate says 19%: https://lao.ca.gov/LAOEconTax/Article/Detail/766#:~:text=Pri....
In all honesty, Volcker wasn't even needed. Let the initial COVID crash wipe out asset prices, helicopter money to everyone as we did, and let the people who were responsible enough to not get wiped out buy into ownership of properties and businesses. Recovery starts that winter and we're already there by now. Same diff to the average American, at worst, and you're not puppeteering zombie corps that you have to keep dumping money into to stave off the defaults that should have come already. This circus where the same people and entities who got us into this mess get to jack up prices to offset wage increases, and then some, is avoided. I don't see the issue.