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Comment by tornato7 | Hacker News Reader

It seems likely that the FTX creditors will be made whole or nearly whole. This is in large part due to FTX's investment in Anthropic that did a 5X[1].

1: https://coinscreed.com/ftx-creditor-claims-break-50c-as-buye...

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This might well be true, but it’s not the slam dunk people seem to be treating it as. A private investment round can be negotiated by as few as two people agreeing on a price. It says nothing about the market clearing price for any other investment or sale like it does with a public market transaction. Public markets give you an order book of other competing offers where you can make some reasonable assumptions about how much you could sell at which price if you wanted to liquidate. There may be no other buyer for Anthropic at or near the current price.

Conversely, it’s a private company and scarcity of opportunity to get in is also a thing. So it’s entirely possible someone will pay more than the previous round just to get in.

Basically we don’t know until the investment bankers have done their jobs.

Anthropic is still in private investment phase, lets not forget WeWork was "worth" $45B at one stage.

Since Anthropic is white-hot right now VCs would be very happy to pay cash for it.

FTX liquidators need to get Masayoshi on the phone

How is it "very likely" when most startups fail?

Good luck cashing that out.

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