In 20 years, what part of it will be AI revenue? 10%? 20%? 30%?
At 20% that would be a 50 trillion dollar market.
If Microsoft manages to capture 10% of that, that is $5T in revenue per year.
Of course, Google somehow managed to capture 90% of the search market. If Microsoft manages that, it would be $45T yearly revenue.
In the US, software is 10% of GDP. And with growing usefulness, that should increase.
I did not assume that one player is going to capture all value. I stated the number for 10% and 90% market share. Today, AWS has 30% market share of cloud computing and Google has 90% market share of search. Assuming the market leader in AI will achieve between 10 and 90 percent market share seems reasonable to me.
They do not collect 30% of the profit brought in by all companies using cloud computing, but only their infrastructure bills.
You were assuming that Microsoft will pull in 100% of the profit of that 10-90% market share you hypothesize for them, which is not how selling infrastructure services works.