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Comment by mg | Hacker News Reader

You don't expect the number of use cases for software to double with AI?

1. No 2. The AWS-equivalents in that space is not going to capture all the value, as OP assumes for Microsoft by multiplying their estimate of total value by expected market share.

To me it seems that every task done by humans will be supported or even replaced by AI. I already see it happening, just 2 years into the new LLM area: Programming, designing, writing, research, driving. How could that not result in a doubling in software use?

I did not assume that one player is going to capture all value. I stated the number for 10% and 90% market share. Today, AWS has 30% market share of cloud computing and Google has 90% market share of search. Assuming the market leader in AI will achieve between 10 and 90 percent market share seems reasonable to me.

AWS has 30% share of cloud computing.

They do not collect 30% of the profit brought in by all companies using cloud computing, but only their infrastructure bills.

You were assuming that Microsoft will pull in 100% of the profit of that 10-90% market share you hypothesize for them, which is not how selling infrastructure services works.

No. I did not mention profit at all. Only revenue.

Revenue is generally greater than profit. AWS does not pull in anywhere near all the revenue that its users generate; its cash flow is a tiny proportion of what its customers generate.

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