1. No
2. The AWS-equivalents in that space is not going to capture all the value, as OP assumes for Microsoft by multiplying their estimate of total value by expected market share.
I did not assume that one player is going to capture all value. I stated the number for 10% and 90% market share. Today, AWS has 30% market share of cloud computing and Google has 90% market share of search. Assuming the market leader in AI will achieve between 10 and 90 percent market share seems reasonable to me.
They do not collect 30% of the profit brought in by all companies using cloud computing, but only their infrastructure bills.
You were assuming that Microsoft will pull in 100% of the profit of that 10-90% market share you hypothesize for them, which is not how selling infrastructure services works.