My general rule of thumb today is to not own construction older than 10 years. I look at home ownership in the same way as car ownership now.
It's ultimately a game of hot potato, unless we are talking about transactions via Sotheby's & friends. Homes in the 6 to low 7 figure range are not long-term things in my view anymore. You are never going to get more out than you put into one of those things, unless you are OK with experiencing an incredible amount of stress and expending untold amounts of time & energy fighting market forces.
Making gains on this kind of real estate is mostly a lie. It's the same variety of lie where we claim cloud->on-prem is cheaper by conveniently ignoring all of the other indirect costs.
1) Cost of labor is going up, 2) Taxes are going up, and 3) Cost of materials are going up, and 4) Population is going up.
When My house was built is 1915, Taxes were 8% of GDP and cost of a carpenter was $0.50/hour. Today, Taxes are 40% of GDP and cost of a carpenter is $30/hour.
This means my house would be far more expensive, even accounting for inflation.
If it was simply a depreciating asset, housing would have to be sold for less than the construction cost in order for people to be able to sustain the depreciating value and have enough cash left over to invest elsewhere for their later years drawdown.
That sucks and we should fix it. It is unreasonable and unsustainable for housing to be that vector. Pensions once existed.
Question is, what proportion of resources does society want to allocate to the country’s older people? Interest rate policy to support asset price increases is one way the government increases this proportion.
But with declining proportion of working age population, these measures become more and more evident.
The exception, I suppose, is if the overall supply of houses and/or land decreases, but then you lock newcomers out of the market.
This is true, but the cost of building a new house is also rising. So at some point buying existing housing is cheaper than building a new house. That should put a floor on the depreciating value you speak of.
I’m not sure I understand this viewpoint at all.
Either more people want to live where you are living (meaning the location is desirable), or fewer people want to live where you are living (meaning it is undesirable).
Technically, you could have a decline in population, but immigration will probably make up for that for a long time.
In the US you cannot depreciate your primary residence. Are you suggesting it should be possible?
They are wrong because there are many more factors than just speculation