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Comment by dkrich | Hacker News Reader

That he makes up products they have no intention of delivering on has been obvious for a few years now. What’s so perplexing is why the market continues to reward it. The company has a $800 billion market cap and an 80 pe.

I suspect it’s on a long road back to reality and being given some premium because of the first mover advantage, but still the company is basically BMW with the illusion of being run by the next Steve Jobs.

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> I suspect it’s on a long road back to reality and being given some premium because of the first mover advantage, but still the company is basically BMW with the illusion of being run by the next Steve Jobs.

Unlike BMW Tesla actually sells meaningful quantities of electric vehicles that people can actually afford.

Just look at the models BMW is advertising [1]: 2x 55k (iX1, i4 GC), 1x 67k (iX3), 1x 70k (i5 L, i4 M50 GC), 1x 77k (iX), 3x 100k+. In total, across all (!) BMW i models, they are on track to sell 340k this year worldwide [2], while Tesla aims for 1.8 million units [3].

[1] https://www.bmw.de/de/neufahrzeuge/bmw-i.html

[2] https://insideevs.de/news/691497/bmw-mini-verkaufszahlen-3qu...

[3] https://www.electrive.net/2023/10/04/tesla-auslieferungen-un...

Because of the asymmetrical risk of betting against it. It's easy for people to buy a Tesla lottery ticket with the chance (at least in the past, and in their minds still) of 10X or 100X your money. Much like crypto. Or the actual lottery. But those who believe it's overvalued have to either risk their entire investment betting on it to crash within a relatively short period, using options, or risk an unlimited amount (or more likely a quick stop-loss exit) with limit upside and high borrowing costs, if they short sell.

I'm pretty damn confident Tesla is overvalued, but I'm not confident I can time when it will drop, nor that it won't go up significantly before then, so I don't really have an attractive way to bet against it.

I'm pretty sure that flying roadster is going to be here soon.

https://www.cnbc.com/2017/11/20/elon-musk-teases-flying-tesl...

Watch Munro channel to see what is realy under the hood.

The level of innovation and the speed of improvement is unseen.

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