> he fairly consistently overpromises and underdelivers.
Can we please just call it what it really is? Lying. He's a pathological liar.
Can we please just call it what it really is? Lying. He's a pathological liar.
2) Musk is particularly bad about it & does it in places that directly financially benefit him.
Telling people that if they fork out 15k now they'll have full self driving in X timeline, completely missing it and then doing the exact same thing for years on end seems less like the planning fallacy and more like fraud, but I guess we can just wait to see what the courts decide on the matter
He's not one though. He's a business executive, so someone who in theory who would have the job to reconcile those lofty dreams with reality.
However, I'd bet quite a bit that the actual engineers and software developers were that optimistic and certainly didn't believe they could achieve FSD in 6 months (they'd be horrible incompetent engineers if they actually believed that).
No one can predict the future. Musk is what plenty of entrepreneurs are...over-confident. That's part of the profile. That doesn't make him or any of them liars.
> Musk is what plenty of entrepreneurs are...over-confident
The real world describing this is delusional. Which I don't think he is (or was at that point anyway).
I'm not necessarily disagreeing with you, simply asking you to show me the space you speak of.
Really? You don't see anything between "we're certain to fail" and "were going to accomplish this thing (even though we haven't got the slightest clue how) in X months"? Would you feel differently about it if Musk said they'll do it in 3 weeks? Because I don't, besides "6 months" being slightly easier to believe.