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>> AI doesn't act by itself

> It can be made to quite easily.

Not really, no. You can of course create an acting-by-itself bot but it will run into limits very very soon, because the world model and planning parts of AI are in their infant stages, if that.

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The concern is not about GPT-4. It's about what 10 years of research gets you to when, five years ago, it seemed completely apparent that even GPT-4 was 50 years off.

Ai is having explosive growth and the hype around it and research is definitely at a high. You could say we are in a "bullish market" when it comes to AI R&D ;). Assuming that this persists for 10 more years or even beyond that seems like a bad bet but I guess we'll see.

GPT-1 was 5 years ago, GPT-2 was 4 years ago and by that time it was quite clear to some that this will scale soon.

But I'm not talking about the GPT-4 either. Many decades and billions poured into research still didn't give us autonomous driving and there is no clear path how that should happen. So I'm not really holding my breath for anything even more capable.

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