The actual gains are never discussed. It could be massive or much less than you expect.
> With Tesla now having a fleet of millions of vehicles using the network and opening it up to EVs from other automakers, financial analysts are starting to see the Supercharger network has a massive business that is going to partly replace gas stations, and they want to value it.
> Wedbush Securities analyst Dan Ives, who has been covering Tesla for a long time, came out with a new note to clients today in which he stated that he believes the Supercharger network will represent 3% to 6% of Tesla’s total revenue or $10 to $20 billion in revenue by 2030.
The IRA EV grants can be found here: https://www.atlasevhub.com/materials/the-inflation-reduction... and if you think Tesla is not going to apply (amd receive) most of the $7 billion for infrastructure, I don't know what to tell you (I'm willing take the other side of your bet in this though). Earlier this year, most in the industry assumed CCS networks would get the money because the law was written with a requirement for interoperability (3 or more makes).
Time line of events:
2014: Tesla opens up its charger patents
[Crickets]
2022H2: IRA signed with billions available to fund interoperable charging networks (i.e. CCS at tine of signing)
2022 November: Tesla renames standard to NACS.
2023: Tesla signs agreements with other manufacturers to use it's network.
Do you suppose it was a coincidence that Tesla's standardization and agreements came within months of billions of federal money being put in the table? Billions that would have gone to an competing charging networks/competing standards?
Also, every other automaker can make cars that qualify. In fact, many already do!
Also note Tesla do not make a single PEHV, so in fact plenty of automakers make vehicles that qualify and Tesla doesn't.
Here's the lists:
EVs: https://electrek.co/2023/11/07/which-electric-vehicles-still...
PEHVs: https://electrek.co/2023/11/07/which-electric-vehicles-still...
You're technically correct, when limiting to first order effects of the rebate. It would be equally technically correct to state farmers don't get any money from SNAP (it goes to the customer!), and yet SNAP is "surprisingly" (to pendants) included in the Farm bill.
Your assertion that Tesla doesn't get any money from subsides is radical because it suggests that either subsidies don't work, or the do work with none value making it's way to the upstream industry the government explicitly set out to support with subsidies. Either one of these positions need supporting evidence.
Did the government set out to subsidise an upstream industry, or did they set out to incentivise consumers to purchase certain products? i.e. EVs not ICE.
> Either one of these positions need supporting evidence.
Interesting that mine do, and yours don't.
It's both. If you want customers to buy certain products in large volumes, there has to be capacity to manufacture said products in large volumes.
> Interesting that mine do, and yours don't.
Me asking you for evidence does not preclude you from asking the same of me. If you want evidence that government subsidies and incentives do work, I can readily provide that[1] - it seems pretty self-evident to me considering history, and international trade complaints about subsidies.
1. https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/15/1/534, https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC10131743/, cash for clunkers, etc
But people will be able to compare how fast Teslas charge, and how Teslas are able to just plug in without using an app or swiping a credit card, and how the owners can watch YouTube or Netflix while charging. Things like these will be the real eye opener, not the brand exposure.
That being said, if any of these legacy companies who were not willing to invest in a charging network decide they want to finally step up and install some chargers of their own (I’m not holding my breath for any at scale), I’m pretty certain there will be no requirement for Tesla branding. Elon has said he doesn’t give a shit about branding.
It’s more important people will see the Tesla product and witness the features of Tesla cars first hand.
https://www.sae.org/news/2023/12/sae-j3400-tir-released
Access to Tesla's charging network is a separate issue, but the connector itself is a published standard.