The smart money expects a Moore’s Law kind of curve here for quite some time going forward, given the economies of scale and powerful incentives.

There will be more variability than with Moore’s Law because the raw materials are more expensive, it’s not just about building a fab and then amortizing over billions of parts.

Expect a rough annual decrease of 5-15% in $/kWh for some time. We continue to find new chemistries and electrod materials that bring prices down.

Will there eventually be a floor? Yes, for sure. But we’re not there yet.