People expect Tesla to grow by doing new things that other companies don’t have the ability to do, either because they have a cash cow they don’t want to disrupt, they don’t appreciate the value software can bring to automotive with some more love than it has been getting, they don’t have the people and culture to take risks and everyone is happy with small tweaks to existing designs, they don’t know how to go back to the drawing board and make a new car and new production line from first principles.
Tesla has learned how to do everything in a decade and has exceeded traditional automakers in some areas and has nothing to lose.
I don’t care about Elon, I have never owned Tesla stock, but I surely admire his ability to execute, and I think that is part of the reason the market assigns such a high multiple Tesla - they are going to be at the vanguard of any developments in the electric terrestrial transportation space.
When the only competitor fully keeping up/overpassing Tesla on the EV side is BYD, and VW is cuting through it's workforce to "stay competitive", it gives a lot of pause on the ethics of the car makers in the field.
Do we need to go through a dark age again before ever getting out of the tunnel ?
I give it 50% chance it won't in US - Tesla will release cheaper model by the time BYD starts selling (if ever) in US.
American electric carmaker Tesla has broken ground on a new lithium processing center it says will support the production of up to 1 million vehicles by 2025.
Albemarle plans to build a lithium processing center in South Carolina that will aim to refine 100,000 tons of the substance each year. Building on that project is expected to begin next year.
I'm no Musk fan with his latest comments, but I disagree with this quite strongly.
Have a look at how many vehicles Toyota have produced for the last 10 years, and have a look at their stock price. Take a guess at their stock price in 10 more years. It's a flat line
Now have a look at the number of vehicles Tesla have produced in the last ten years. Now guess at their stock price in 10 more years.
There is a chance Tesla will make 20 million vehicles by 2030. If they do, their stock price will go up a lot. There really is not much chance of Toyota doing that. (they're not trying to)
If Teslas price were based on the possibility that they could eventually reach a bit over double Toyota's production, they wouldn't already be almost 3x more highly valued.
Market cap is much more closely related to total profit and future company outlook rather than a current snapshot of the number of cars sold.
And they're not making any $20k car which is how they reach 20 million cars. Guess what the profit per car for those is.
I wonder how almost $200 billion in debt at these interest rates might factor into your calculations? Or were you not aware of Toyota’s debt?
https://www.statista.com/chart/27743/companies-with-the-high...
And again, let's see Tesla a few years down the line when political and social factors start weighing them down, too.
The big automakers have the profit margins they do not just simply because they're all dumb, as Tesla fanboys would love to believe, but because their environment is constrained by many things, primarily legislation.
My guess, Tesla will stabilize as a major car maker, maybe even #1 for a short period of time, and after a while the shine will wear off. They'll just be GM for the internet era.
As for political factors, it seems that would only benefit Tesla vs the other automakers as Tesla only makes electric cars which is where many governments are trying to push consumers to. Other carmakers have to figure out a way to convert their ICE assembly lines to EV lines if we assume that we'll be moving towards a mostly electric future (which I believe, regardless if it's Tesla or someone else who takes us there).
Even if they don't hit it by 2030, based on everything else they've done to date, I think it's likely they will eventually get there.
[1] https://web.archive.org/web/20210305144526/https://mainichi....
David vs Goliath when that fits the narrative.
And then fans are all too eager to remind us of the (utterly ridiculous at times) market cap when that fits the narrative.
(Oh yes, absolutely worth more than deep breath Toyota, Volkwagen Group, Hyundai/Kia, General Motors, Ford, Nissan, Honda, Fiat Chrysler, Renault, Suzuki, Daimler, BMW, Mazda and Mitsubishi combined. (Oh, and several Chinese manufacturers: SAID, Geely, Changan, Dongfeng).)