If Teslas price were based on the possibility that they could eventually reach a bit over double Toyota's production, they wouldn't already be almost 3x more highly valued.
Market cap is much more closely related to total profit and future company outlook rather than a current snapshot of the number of cars sold.
And they're not making any $20k car which is how they reach 20 million cars. Guess what the profit per car for those is.
I wonder how almost $200 billion in debt at these interest rates might factor into your calculations? Or were you not aware of Toyota’s debt?
https://www.statista.com/chart/27743/companies-with-the-high...
And again, let's see Tesla a few years down the line when political and social factors start weighing them down, too.
The big automakers have the profit margins they do not just simply because they're all dumb, as Tesla fanboys would love to believe, but because their environment is constrained by many things, primarily legislation.
My guess, Tesla will stabilize as a major car maker, maybe even #1 for a short period of time, and after a while the shine will wear off. They'll just be GM for the internet era.
As for political factors, it seems that would only benefit Tesla vs the other automakers as Tesla only makes electric cars which is where many governments are trying to push consumers to. Other carmakers have to figure out a way to convert their ICE assembly lines to EV lines if we assume that we'll be moving towards a mostly electric future (which I believe, regardless if it's Tesla or someone else who takes us there).