I don't know if ISPs without NATs automatically deploy firewalls, but would hope so. IPV6 is harder to scan, but once you know a device's IP address (e.g. from web logs), it'd be easy to exploit older devices.
I reasonably trust, not 100% but pretty well, that my boss's or grandma's PC with ip 192.168.1.3 on NAT (not even routable from the WAN) will not receive inbound TCP/UDP. That would take effort.
This argument is so overused we might as well add it to ipv6-excuses.txt.
And nowadays few routers have IPv6 firewall disabled by default... Do you see how fragile your argument is now?
In the long term with our world of cheap crappy routers, it's also much easier for upnp to die off than for ipv6 firewalls to become ubiquitously strong. Both of those are extra features that take effort to do right. So is NAT, but a broken NAT doesn't expose hosts.
My own Asus router from 2016, RT-AC1200G+, also came with IPv6 firewall enabled.
Both routers are 8 years old at this point. And they are far from being a prosumer product. What router are you using that it doesn't come with IPv6 firewall enabled?
edit: Oh, and my friend's cheapo Netis router (quite an obscure brand IMO) also had IPv6 firewall enabled out of the box.
>ipv6 firewalls to become ubiquitously strong
They don't need to be strong, the firewalls just have to be stateful so that they can drop unsolicited packets. It's that simple. Any other more sophisticated attacks would have made your NAT equally vulnerable as well.
Additionally, stateful firewalls have been available since decades ago. They are not exactly black magic.
IPv6 is still confusing for many developers
>which on most routers equals disabling IPv6
Turning on NAT on IPv4 certainly does not entail turning off IPv6. Just _what_ exactly are you sprouting? It's not the first time you have made beginner mistakes like this.