Comment by angarg12 | Hacker News Reader

Comment by angarg12 | Hacker News Reader

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Your first point hits it exactly.

Let's say that it's year X and you have two choices: either you bet that the future will be bleak, and cut cost and hunker down, or you bet that the future will be bright and make big investments.

If X is 2022, the first bet will be right, while the second will lead to bloat and excess. But if X is 2014, the second bet will be right and the company will gain market share, while the first bet might make you go out of business.

So big tech companies weren't so irrational to make those big bets to begin with, and they simply overcorrected the other way around afterwards.

Now, as an employee in one of these I still think this is shortsighted and will damage them long term. But the stock market keeps rewarding these companies handsomely, so what do I know?

The thing I am most excited about is the diaspora of talent from the big tech companies. I'm hoping the talent vacuum slows down and we can infuse all those extra minds into more startups, more innovation, more value growth on mid-sized companies.

I'm thinking optimistically about this as well, however, it's also true that someone who does well in a large corporate environment and who only knows large corporate operating procedures could struggle to adapt to the needs of startup in a timely manner. A Google or Meta staff-level engineer is a pretty useless skillset I'd say for a company with only a few people. Plus, those folks likely also have the personal networks and charisma to bounce to another high paying position elsewhere that needs those skills and is willing to continue paying for them.

Though, I am hearing of a few who struggled to find a comparable job with comparable benefits ended up starting something while they update their skills. I guess the question is, do they have the network and reach to turn it into a business?! Having serious downtime to decompress is a major catalyst for any of us drained of our creativity. So, at the very least, once VC money starts flowing again, and that VC money is not just obsessed with chasing LLM + X idea, then we might see this new wave of startups.

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