I think LLMs are incredible, and spend most of my days working with them closely, but they are not nearly as close to “AGI” as people think primarily due to their inability to really generalize.
At the end of the day LLMs aren’t that different than old school n-gram Markov chains, except rather than working on n-grams, they’re working in a (very sophisticated) latent space. Their power is really these incredible latent languages spaces we’re still just starting to understand.
In all my years of tech the “AI” space is the most curious hype-bubble since the things people expect to happen are entirely out line with what is possible, while at the same time the potential of these models is still, imho, underexplored and largely ignored by the vast majority of people attempting to build things with them.
99% of the people I know working in this space are just calling APIs and trying to do some variant of code generations, where a small minority of people are really trying to figure out what’s going on in these models and what can be done with them successfully.