But if Windows dies, what then can replace it? Will we see another XP, except one that goes unreplaced? Microsoft making a U-Turn?
Or possibly, another Operating System? Android? Chrome OS? Ubuntu?
Whatever happens, Windows 8, its launch, and aftermath will certainly be interesting, "good" or not.
Most people buy a new PC every few years and it comes with some sort of OS and it looks different every time. Whether that was XP or Vista or 7 or 8, they won't know. And consequently, we can complain all we want, but if it comes pre-installed and IT departments like it, it will work.
Don't get me wrong, Microsoft will die eventually (just like we all do), but it will be a gradual, less painful process. Maybe this is one of their last serious stabs at something exciting. But they will die of obscurity, not concrete failure.
There are real alternatives today, including not upgrading. Microsoft may come to regret making Windows 7 as solid as it is.
Ten years is way too far in the future to place any bets.
WinXP + IE6 is still an option and it has been 10+ years already. If windows 8-9-10 sucks, then win7 can easily carry on for as long as hardware manufacturers keep shipping compatible drivers; and if windows 8-9-10 sucks, then they can easily do it for dozens of years.
I guess what I was trying to say was that Microsoft seems to be losing right now and they might just die in the somewhat near future. However, this will not be the direct consequence of a bad version of Windows or of people skipping a version. We have seen that before. People always complain about change, especially about changes in something they don't understand but have to use anyways. So people complaining about a new version of Windows is not interesting.
I see Ubuntu becoming more popular and more consumerized, with popular games arriving for it. I see ChromeOS and Android gaining a bit of laptop market share. I see Macs gaining more market share, too. Governments and enterprises will increasingly use Linux or cloud alternatives.
The point is, Windows will not have the monopoly it had for 15 years, and that's a great thing. We've been waiting for that for a very long time.
I'll take native development any day.
tl;dr: no.
I see this as another instance of the Windows Rule in effect: Skip every other release.
I will say I'm in the minority of people that likes the way Metro looks and acts even on the desktop. They'll get more apps come release time. Keep in mind, what we've all played with isn't even beta quality software.
You sure? They've had the Developer and Consumer preview out, yet they still have a practically empty store, and have been literally handing out checks to try and fill it.
Intel's halfassed efforts with the Atom really FUBAR'd the netbook. What a dog those computers are. The initial rabid enthusiasm that people had for Netbooks just set them up for a bad experience, which reinforced their prejudices against PCs predisposed them to flee to lag-free experiences like the iPad.