Definitely don't feel obligated to answer, but may I ask what country or region you're from? And if you do any ios or Mac development?
I think there is these 2 things to consider:
Obviously this will change nothing for most people. Baseline, 99.9% people will not be doing anything different today than yesterday. I think the way Apple acts is ridiculous and outrageous, but I already thought that and already don't have an iphone. My wife doesn't even know who Epic is or anything about ios developers or 30% or any of that, and nothing is changing about her iphone. Nothing changes in either case.
But there will be some subset of current Apple customers who see these actions as exposing an attitude they don't want to reward, enough to stop being Apple customers. Maybe it's the latest thing that adds to the constant stream of other criticisms that they've always heard but have been just excusing or dismissing but eventually they see something they decide is "see enough smoke, maybe time to stop doubting there's a fire". It's not a large group but not zero either.
But will there ever be anyone that goes the other way? Is there any such thing as a current Android user who sees Apple do this, and specifically because of the way Apple treats developers, that convinces them to switch TO Apple? Well there's at least one of every imaginable freak out there but there certainly can't be a class of these.
I'm sure that some teachers, as well as parents who have seen large credit card bills for Fortnite lootboxes, are grateful that Apple is aggressively targeting one of the banes of their existence. If anything, they'll be disappointed that Apple blinked and let Fortnite continue to exist!
In seriousness, though, I do wonder if some of the sheen of "you need to have blue iMessage bubbles to be one of the cool kids" has been irrevocably damaged by this. Perhaps Apple reversed its decision rapidly enough. I suppose only time will tell, but at minimum it's the type of risky move that seems desperate on Apple's part.
You're almost certainly listening to loud voices online, who do not reflect majority opinion
The government's trust, yes.