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Comment by Der_Einzige | Hacker News Reader

I agree strongly with Biden when he characterized the recovered American economy as "the greatest story never told".

The reality is that the US economy is very strong, and has been for quite some time now. We all just don't like to admit it.

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I think it’s both (great economy, poor sentiment). The economy is strong because unemployment is low. Unemployment is low because of a tight labor market due to structural demographics. But housing is expensive because of housing shortages, which will take years, if not decades, of building to resolve. Credit is expensive making buying durable goods expensive (autos, specifically). Healthcare is…you know.

We’re closer to “living within our means” (versus cheap credit inflating consumer and business spend) from an equilibrium perspective, but the ZIRP party is over, happiness is reality minus expectations, and everyone is disappointed in what reality looks like.

You might not lose your job, but you’re still chained to a treadmill with no relief in sight. Hence, sentiment.

>the US economy is very strong, and has been for quite some time now. We all just don't like to admit it.

What should "a strong US economy" mean to the common middle class worker? I think that's the issue. Unemployment is low, but several sectors are finding it harder to find work than ever, with companies slashing roles in real time.

Where are these roles, what kind of roles are they (part time, gig?), and can people actually live off of these roles? if unemployment is zero and everyone is flipping burgers, that doesn't seem to be an actual win for the working class.

> if unemployment is zero and everyone is flipping burgers, that doesn't seem to be an actual win for the working class.

That is nowhere near reality, so the supposition is a waste of time. Plenty of work is highly in demand, plumbing, electrical, HVAC, driving, etc.

I think that the question is whether the high demand work is available (e.g. most people aren't electricians) and whether it allows for a good quality of life.

>Plenty of work is highly in demand

Sure, so is tech. The point is more that are these "high demand" work hiring?

Also, nit: I don't recall "driving" ever particularly being in high demand. Rideshare gig's are the exact kinds of roles I fear the government is counting as "employed".

You need to be looking at the U6 figures to get all marginally attached to workforce people such as those who are under employed who want more work. Someone working less than 35 hours a week for a ride share app but wanting more hours or even working more than 35 hours and wanting a better job would count in the U6 figure.

> or even working more than 35 hours [for a ride share app] and wanting a better job would count in the U6 figure

No, people working full time and wanting a better job are not included. Every worker wants a better job.

U6 is: "Total unemployed, plus all persons marginally attached to the labor force, plus total employed part time for economic reasons...Persons marginally attached to the labor force are those who currently are neither working nor looking for work but indicate that they want and are available for a job and have looked for work sometime in the past 12 months."

Someone working a gig economy job is still very likely underemployed. Someone working a gig economy job full time is in fact employed by all possible metrics.

The grandparent comment being concerned about counting these people is unrealistic as you say nearly everyone would desire better employment.

The economy is strong but people aren't feeling it because wages haven't caught up to inflation. It's a soft landing, which is great news, but hard to get excited.

Absolutely, poor media coverage has lead to poor sentiment despite a consistently good economic recovery since gas prices went down in 2022.

Not sure why you're being downvoted.

If the economy is that strong, why are housing prices outrageously high on either coast, where the jobs are? To paraphrase Jesus, it's not about Man serving the Economy, it's about the Economy serving Man.

A strong economy tends to cause higher housing prices. When people have more money then they naturally tend to spend a lot of that on upgrading their living arrangements.

Immigration is also a factor. I'm not trying to start an argument about immigration but the de facto open borders policy has brought in millions more people. That must have an effect, particularly at the lower end of the market.

A strong economy tends to cause higher housing prices

A look at the data will tell you that housing construction does not meet demand since in the mid-1980's (!): https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/HOUST. It's now obvious to anyone that the policy failure has caught up with the nation.

The problem is seriously compounded by the depopulation of rural areas and the fact that current new construction is not entry-level housing and never will be. You can't subdivide an exurban mansion into four apartments.

Jobs are everywhere in this country, there's a reason why the unemployment rate is so low!

Care to elaborate on this line of thinking? What jobs and where?

Dude is saying that someone who is works for 1h in a week is not included in the U-3 statistics.

The wife is reviewing job applications for a teaching position at her institution. There are people applying who did decent work in the past and are now writing assignments for study.com. That's some serious underemployment visible there.

These people are counted in the U6 figures. U3 is only people without a job who have been looking in the past 12 months and haven’t found a job.

Is the issue underemployment or elite overproduction?

It's lack of industrial policy, really, the fact that these people did good science until outsourcing started proves it. It's not cases of "got useless PhD at university no one ever heard of".

Underemployment historically low right now, your anecdotes are meaningless against the real data.

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