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Comment by nnnnni | Hacker News Reader

It is, just like MySpace and Friendster before it... In a few years, the next big thing will take over and the cycle will repeat itself.

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I'm not so sure. I will most likely be wrong, but I really think Facebook has dug in too well to be easily displaced. It's integrated itself into so many different tenets (gaming, marketing for other brands, sharing) that I just can't see it being a fad. There was that uh-oh moment when Google+ was opened, but Facebook countered pretty quickly. As long as they keep doing that I think they'll be fine.

the telegraph service western union turned down a chance to buy the patent for telephones as they thought it was merely a toy. it's still a custom in ireland to send telegrams for weddings, other than that...

facebook is merely a service that will exist till some better service comes along.

disclaimer. never had a facebook account.

Sure, but that doesn't make telegraphs a "fad." Nothing lasts forever--particularly not when it comes to technology. But I don't think you've refuted the parent's statement that facebook won't "be easily displaced." It took a vastly superior technology to supplant telegraphs. If the same is true of Facebook, it could have good staying power.

The inevitable comparison when this comes up is to Friendster or MySpace, but it's really a poor one. Neither had anywhere the reach of Facebook even at their height, nor a large percentage of the world's internet users. Earlier social networks had significant competitors. Isn't it remarkable that in the ~4 years that Facebook has been dominant, _nobody_ has successfully challenged it?

Facebook will likely diminish in importance at some point, but it's not going to happen any time soon.

Perhaps it is hard to come up with a comparison in this space (social media) because it hasn't had a tremendous run time with very many rises and falls. But perhaps looking at something like "browsers" can offer another comparison with more history. We've seen several shifts in the dominant players there. Some have gone away. Some have been slow and steady. Some have risen and fallen... but never died.

I don't think Facebook is a "fad" but I do think that it has a shelf life. It annoys me. I do get to keep up with the lives of people I once knew... but it annoys me. And honestly I'm not sure what annoys me more, Facebook or the people that treat Facebook like the Golden Calf. I would rather be on G+ but their lack of a full feature API is a barrier.

But Western Union still exists. Facebook will be around for a long time, even if different things come along as well.

So does AOL.

> I really think Facebook has dug in too well to be easily displaced.

lol

Couldn't agree more. I remember when AOL chat rooms were the end-all. IRC was the place to be. Compuserve, Lycos and Alta Vista were kings in their own right. Netscape was the only browser. Friendster was doing something no one had done before. It's simple technological progression - we seek the latest and the greatest. And that will certainly come with regard to social. Facebook will always be around, just like Yahoo! is - but the "next big thing" is right around the corner. Good luck to those seeking it.

Funny you mention AV, which Google killed around 2001. And then, after that...? There's always a next big thing, until there isn't. Sometimes the last man standing remains the last man standing, though predicting who it will be is rather tricky.

There could be hidden interests which benefit from facebook's success. These interests, manifested in the 12M from Accel [ http://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=484171 ], have probably a lot to do why fb made it and myspace and friendster failed.

It very weird to watch a American society buy stock in the very company that is trying to enslave them.

Lots of VCs and investors pumped money into AOL and non-monetizable dotcoms, too.

Having lots of capital might have enabled Facebook's short-term success, but you need a lot more than capital to sustain a compelling product and maintain a market over the long term.

The fact the MySpace was awful probably had more to do with it.

Facebook already bought the next big thing in social world last month.

Exactly - people seem to want to hit 'reset' on their peer group/network from time to time. Moving to a different social network seems to support that.

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