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>See also: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/T10Y2Y/ The grey areas are recessions

This chart shows (part of) the yield curve, not the Fed funds rate.

Did you mean to show this?

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/FEDFUNDS

I guess that would have been more correct, yes. It shows the same pattern in any case.

What it shows is that the Fed starts cutting rates shortly before or shortly after a recession begins, exactly as you would expect. In some cases they started raising again too early and had to backtrack.

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