Next, if you assume his story about selling on Monday was true, you have additional downward pressure put on FB as a result of NASDAQ itself. So much so that it closes at $34, eroding everyone's confidence in the $70 valuation that they had in their minds on Friday.
Markets only work if they operate efficiently (can handle the volume). When they don't work efficiently, they become harder to predict. And if an investor can't even be sure of what their position is, they can't participate in the market at all. It isn't at all out of the question that glitches in NASDAQ could have caused FB shares to plumet. It most certainly took away any possibility of an IPO bump.
The real question this beings up is what did NASDAQ know, and when did they know it. If they knew their system wasn't going to be able to handle the volume, as bad as that might have been for them, they should have aborted the IPO (if that's at all possible).
You are confusing "should" with "is". Don't do that.
Ignoring well-known examples like Amazon (which even today trades well above where it "should"[1]), there are other examples like "The Globe", which had a first-day gain of 249%[2]
More recently, Splunk popped 83%[3].
He addressed the there would have been buyers the past two days thing, too: It never stood a shot. If there was any enthusiasm for this deal, that got wiped out. Think about a guy who was going to put five grand on this. You go to Vegas and put $5,000 on the roulette wheel and it breaks, it's like, hold on, I'm not going to do that. Suddenly you're like this is Wall Street and I hate Wall Street.
[1] http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=AMZN - AMZN has a P/E ratio of 177. Compare that to EBAY: 15, GOOG: 18
[2] http://news.cnet.com/2100-1023-217913.html
[3] http://online.wsj.com/article/BT-CO-20120419-713258.html
He has been frothing for this opportunity, ever since he missed the Google boat. At the time of the goog ipo, he was a lowly broker with little funds to leverage.
Since then he has been viciously ambitious. He has built a name for himself and a powerful, if flawed, circle of acquaintances.
He was successful in frothing up his circle, convincing them that he could make an FB focused super fund and make them a killing!
He gathered up $200MM from his network and put a crazy bet on the stock.
He lost - all his credibility gone, a loss which was thought to be a sure thing. He is ruined!
Especially since now that the loss is here - it will be revealed that he committed many millions to purchases on this expected cash cow!
His bills are due, and he owes $30MM TOMORROW for everything he used funds from his network's input to pre-buy!
HE IS FUCKED!
But, he has a really nice yacht to attempt to flee to Bermuda on...