Comment by hkmaxpro | Hacker News Reader

Comment by hkmaxpro | Hacker News Reader

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For comparison, China’s vacant home problem is at least 5 times Japan’s.

China probably has so many vacant homes that even 1.4 billion people can’t fill, according to an estimate of a former deputy head of its National Bureau of Statistics last September [1].

If each vacant home is occupied by a household of 2.76 [2], there are about 510 million vacant homes in China. That’s 55 times Japan’s.

But China’s population is only about 11 times Japan’s. And vacant homes only multiply over time [3].

[1] https://www.reuters.com/world/china/even-chinas-14-bln-popul...

> How many vacant homes are there now? Each expert gives a very different number, with the most extreme believing the current number of vacant homes are enough for 3 billion people

> That estimate might be a bit much, but 1.4 billion people probably can't fill them

[2] https://www.statista.com/statistics/1087871/china-average-ho...

> The national average was 2.76 people per household in 2022.

[3] https://www.tbsnews.net/international/empty-houses-hit-recor...

See the chart.

China's vacant homes are new builds.

"Since the 1980s, China has built enough new housing to re-house the entire population but the construction boom has become a self-sustaining, perpetual engine of construction for the sake of construction – supply with no demand. And there are not just miles of empty apartment blocks but entire “ghost cities” complete with office towers, hospitals, schools, futuristic airports, museums, universities, libraries, theaters, sports fields, and miles and miles of apartment towers and subdivisions of McMansions – but almost no people. (20) Twenty-one percent of China’s urban residents, the wealthy and middle classes, own two urban apartments, some own three or four – all bought for speculation, not to live in, not vacation homes. More than 22.4 percent of urban apartments and houses remained vacant in 2014. (21) By one estimate, more than 64 million surplus apartments had been built in China, enough to house almost half the population of the United States, yet millions more are under construction."

A version of those huge stone coins found in some cultures. The "owner" of the coin is in name only, it can't really be moved. Value is stored via the knowledge of how many exist and who owns them.

For China's ghost cities: Each empty apartment has a unique address and an owner so I guess that counts as a byzantine form of currency too. Maybe the BOC could print "empty apartment" bank notes where it maintains the empty apartment on your behalf but you can trade the note in for the deed to the apartment.

What about stock shares.... eh let's not go there :)

The yapese Rai stones - A big part of mariana culture

That is a brilliant reference and I think good way to think about modern financial vehicles - namely that our species is still into necromancing our totems in order to give a dead object anthropomorphic spirits

What silly creatures we are

It's because all of this is just a way to physically represent trust.

Having an object to direct the trust at, such that strangers can both agree is useful.

I've heard the focus on owning properties is partly driven by how the Chinese government has placed limits on how much or how profitably Chinese citizens can invest in other options. (Deposits in a bank earning interest, stocks, etc.)

So China’s new vacant homes are similar to Japan’s vacant homes built in the 1980's and 90's, but 5 times the scale, adjusted for the population.

BTW, you quoted the following article from 2015. The 64 million surplus apartments number is outdated.

https://truthout.org/articles/china-s-communist-capitalist-e...

There's no credible estimates remotely alleging ~500 million vacant homes.

Excess PRC square footage in housing inventory is enough for 100-150m people. About 10 years of urbanization headroom. PRC continuing trend to urbanize from 65%->80/80% still has to resettle 200-300m to urban areas. This is without accounting for deprecated housing stock. Yes reality of speculation and (mis)allocation is much messier, but PRC is still 100-150m short on urban housing, they just also have a very wasteful 100-150m decade long housing runway.

For reference 80% urbanized US is short on ~6M homes, that's 2% relative to population. PRC gunning for 80% urbanization = PRC is net short 7-10%. Realistically much higher since a lot of people in rural stuck in very shitty housing stock. I mean that's their choice, and economics of relocating people who can't afford new homes is going to be... interesting. But part of urbanization goal is to move 100s in prexisting shitty tier5 homes into modern housing. Especially elderly whose going to be in <2 people households.

> vacant home problem

> If each vacant home is occupied by a household of 2.76 [2], there are about 510 million vacant homes in China.

Considering the literal rows of tents that pop up outside my apartment because so many people can't afford the fucking astronomically high rents here in America anymore, that sounds like a FANTASTIC "problem" to have!

It doesn’t fix anything. Rents in major cities like Shanghai or Shenzhen are proportionally pricier than even the priciest American metros. All these ghost houses are in places no one wants to live. On the same note, rent is pretty damn cheap in Toledo, Ohio.

>All these ghost houses are in places no one wants to live

Most of vacant units / under occupied development areas are where people fine with living, even speculative RE purchases has to factor in location to maximize returns. Hence empty units largely located just outside of ring roads of "city" where many people live, but rent between "decent" area and "prime" urban area is huge = many owners speculating on equity growth don't even bother to rent since ROI of rentals in these areas are very bad.

Someone can correct me, but I think both China and South Korea now have worse demographics than Japan.

I didn’t compare Italy and Germany with Japan either.

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