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Comment by bryanlarsen | Hacker News Reader

Greenhouse gases will most likely peak in 2024, but 2023 & 2025 are also probable.

https://climateanalytics.org/comment/will-2024-be-the-year-e...

Even if we are close to peaking emissions, we must consider the phenomenon of accumulation. Given that CO2 has an effective lifespan of around 100 years and methane about 10 years in the atmosphere, reductions in emissions now will still result in these gases accumulating and impacting the climate for decades to come.

If you cut all methane emissions right now, the Earth would immediately start to cool down, and do it for a decade or 2.

That is half-lives work.

Where you have "accumulating", you mean persisting.

No, even if you emit less, you are still 'accumulating', but at a slower rate. And previously released methane is still converting to co2 in the atmosphere, for decades to come.

OK. It's too late for me to retract my comment, though.

No they won't. Only the first derivative of greenhouse gases ('emissions') will peak. Greenhouse gases itself will only peak after the world achieves net-zero.

Since you're being pedantic, greenhouse gases don't have an infinite lifetime in the atmosphere so they will start going down slightly before we hit net-zero.

I hope most understood that I meant to say peak greenhouse gas emissions.

You mean the growth of emission rates. Emissions will still be ongoing for a looooong time.

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