Comment by martinkallstrom | Hacker News Reader

Comment by martinkallstrom | Hacker News Reader

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martinkallstrom

One thing I am very happy about is the undeniable signs in my everyday life that tell me that I without a doubt now live in the future of my childhood. My phone, laptop, my work are all things that not only didn't exist as they are back then, but didn't even exist in earlier versions. The exception, in one way, is my iphone which had a precursor in our heavy mechanic rotary dial landline telephone with spiral cord back home (still remember our phone number - 0345-12119). But it is just an example of how extremely fast technology has moved, since my phone now serves me with not just the ability to talk to others but to access vast libraries of information, schedule my haircut and transportation, and just about anything at all in life.

One of the most elegant qualities about everyday technology is how it fits into our lives in a very natural and economical manner. This is both what makes it very hard to write good science fiction, and what makes it hard to simply appreciate how quickly technology evolves every year. My smartphone is a natural extension of both my arm and my mind, my body just fits into my car and I rarely make a concious choice between the numerous different ways I have to get in touch with any of my acquaintances. I just reach for my cellphone, skype, facebook, email, gtalk, twitter etc whatever is more convenient without much thought about how none of those existed just a few years ago.

This brings to me a deep awe and trust in my current future. I am very comfortable to say that in ten and twenty years I will be equally satisfied with the mind blowing pace of tech evolution. And it makes it even more awesome that every step on the way will fit so perfectly into my life that it is only in hindsight I will recognize the sheer magnitude of it's awesomeness.

The future of my childhood had fusion power, strong AI and bases on multiple planets.

However, no Internet.

I think the Internet was treated with almost inevitability and insignificance by some science fiction writers as it is a means to an end, not the endgame itself.

Give it another decade.

I've seen people blaming NASA's need for protecting jobs (shuttle) for the stalling of the space age. Things seem to have started moving. For real bases, two-three decades.

Fusion power? Check Polywell and General Fusion, et al. There is hope.

Strong AI? No clue.

If there is a landing on Mars in the next 30 years I'll be delighted as anyone (pinning my hopes on Elon Musk for this one).

Fusion - we're probably 40+ years from a commercial plant (ITER is being constructed, then there is probably going to be a DEMO plant and only after that would there be a commercial design). Assuming, of course, that someone doesn't do a SpaceX round the current Big Science projects.

Strong AI - very unlikely, unfortunately, as it would presumably help with everything else on the list.

I find it strange the binary Weak/Strong AI assumption so many people hold. What about medium AI? Or Not So Weak AI, Or 0.23 Strong AI? Presumably, each level of Not so strong AI will help to lessen the gap between the then current AI and Strong AI.

And I am not talking about recursive self improving AI growth - just that each additional improvement in Nonhuman intelligence increases the total intellectual efficiency of humanity and that these benefits are multiplicative.

You didn't check out General Fusion or Polywell, I take it. There are others, too. One of these dark horses might come in.

Here are a couple of links:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Polywell

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/General_Fusion

I was aware of the Polywell work - hadn't seen General Fusion before. The description of how their reactor would work on the Wikipedia page is pretty interesting!

Steam punk fusion is ridiculously cool. :-)

Google for the funded Tri Alpha, too. And then there is Lerner and team. I hope at least one of the groups succeed, the world will change.

(If you check talk-polywell.org, there is some positive info which is "only" 6 months old.)

I recently re-read Arthur C. Clarke's 2010, and noted with admiration that the characters are using small handheld computers with touchscreen interfaces.

I don't remember this detail. I'll probably have to reread it. Where were those used?

You can also find them in the movie. If I recall correctly, they were used by someone on the orbital Hilton and by the astronauts on the discovery.

Samsung recently used the movie as evidence of prior art against apple [1].

[1]: http://appadvice.com/appnn/2011/08/samsung-uses-2010-a-space...

2001. They are seen aboard the Discovery, but they don't show touch interfaces (unless George Lucas somehow got hold of the rights and disfigured a masterpiece).

I believe it was fairly late in the book, but I'll look up the exact line when I get home this evening.

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