I'm talking about Arianespace/etc, SpaceX won't need the government to keep them from being pushed out of the business by themselves. ULA might be put onto life support just so the US government has a fallback. Alternatively, a forced ULA/Blue Origin merger could be viable.

I suppose you probably mean that SpaceX owes their success to government contracts, but the point I'm making is that nobody but SpaceX will be able to win contracts except through acts of charity motivated by national security. France and the EU will continue buying rockets from Arianespace even though those launches will cost orders of magnitude more, simply because they don't want to lose their domestic capabilities.