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Not a compelling article especially one from 2005. I think history has already proven Dyson wrong.

Sean Carroll has had numerous excellent podcasts on this subject. As I understand, in general, these climate models have actually underpredicted the rate of changes we have seen so far.

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There has been significant political and even social pressure on researchers to hedge their bets and predict the minimum value from their models.

Basically the final reports have been the “floor” — the guaranteed amount of warming expected with the most optimistic scenario and the most conservative modelling.

It turns out that the nonlinear feedbacks are nasty, perhaps worse than even the high estimates.

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