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chinchilla2020

The expected value of startup equity is far, far, far below a casino. The ON bet at a craps table is 50% odds. Less than 1% of startups survive.

You might as well go to the casino. You will save years of sweat, heartache, and stress-induced mental decline.

Instead at a casino you get to blow your money quickly, enjoy fun, free drinks, and still have the upside potential to become super rich if you are in the 0.000001 luck percentile.

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I think a better analogy would be a poker room than a craps table. You don't get to influence the outcome at a craps table, but your performance at a startup will influence its probability of success. Also your choice of which craps table to play at doesn't change your odds, but you can certainly change your odds of success at a startup by choosing which one to join. Obviously there are no sure things, but after a while you can at least weed out most of the dumb startup ideas and/or the incompetent founders.

At an early startup, your execution has a meaningful impact on the outcome. This isn’t true for craps. It may be for poker, though.

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