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Three buildup of troops by Russia along the Ukrainian border started in 2021, which is when the US left Afghanistan.

I'm not the parent nor am I saying the two wars are related but it's not unfathomable to think that American intelligence could have predicted a war between Ukraine and Russia at the same time as they were exiting Afghanistan

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Sure, they could have predicted that. It does seem a little obvious in hindsight at least; they had already had conflicts, Russia had seized Crimea, etc.

But the parent was implying that the US (or the defense industry in it) somehow had something to do with this situation, and that seems rather absurd. Sure, they may be profiting off it, but they didn't create the situation. Wars are caused by shitty political leaders who have the support of idiotic populaces; arms makers are just in the right position to profit.

I think US was involved in the tensions between Ukraine and Russia change into full scale war. Putin needed an excuse to go for all out war and take over parts of Ukraine. And US played a part in that happening.

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