Hacker News Reader

Comment by Terr_ | Hacker News Reader

> yet a labor shortage persisted.

It's a bit trite, but: Is it a shortage of labor, or is it a shortage of pay for labor?

I realize that other issues can come into play like barriers of accreditation, people not realizing demand exists, lack of funds to pursue education to supply the demand, or a perception that the whole career-direction is a "bad bet", etc... Yet once you've seen somebody say "labor shortage" to describe a situation where the pay is terrible, it's hard to un-see it as a kind of sneaky blame-shifting tactic.

Ex: "I can't find anyone willing to sell me a new car for $1,000! Clearly America is gripped by a devastating car shortage. Manufacturers must step up production, and the government can help fix this crisis by giving car-purchasers like myself a tax break."

View on HN

It's very simple: salaries are not going up so it is not a shortage of labor.

When there is a genuine shortage of labor, salaries rise to correct it.

I am torn on that argument we see a rather high drop in quality of almost everything. It seems that corps go for lowering the quality of their products which they can produce with less skilled labor. The opposite is true for luxury goods were the skilled labor is still in high demand.

I'm doubtful outsourcing + shipping will be more expensive than raising wages + shipping - because tooling and automotive/aerospace parts are used further away than the machine shop door, shipping is a cost regardless. Sure, shipping is further from Uzbekistan than Connecticut, but seafreight is cheap as hell, and most factory lines are relatively stable.

Unless America is going to push business "leaders" to bring jobs home through tax and finance structures, I wouldn't count on pay going up. You cannot count on Mac or similar to bring jobs home to virtue signal - American capitalism generally means if you aren't cheaper or noticably better, you'll be fed to the wolves.

Yeah I think this is a lot of it. My dad was a machinist and we were definitely on the lower end of middle class growing up. I just checked, and in my area a machinist makes about double minimum wage. That’s decent money, but not something highly paid.

Went looking for stats [0]:

> Machinists and Tool and Die Makers

> 2023 Median Pay: $53,180/yr, $25.57/hr

Just in case geography matters, since TFA mentions Connecticut, dug down a little further by geography. Note the transition from median to mean here:

> 51-4111 Tool and Die Makers

> Mean wage: $71,360/yr, $34.31/hr,

> 51-4041 Machinists

> Mean wage: $60,290/yr, $28.98/hr

[0] https://www.bls.gov/ooh/production/machinists-and-tool-and-d...

Bear in mind that Tool & Die makers are pretty much the top caliber of machinists and there are relatively few of them, so wages will naturally be higher. In many parts of the country, machinists report that they struggle to find jobs paying more than about $20/hour.

"In May 2023, the median annual wages for machinists in the top industries in which they worked were as follows:"

I.e. we're only looking at the top paying jobs. Then, look at that we're taking a yearly pay to calculate an hourly rate. Fifty hour weeks are more the norm.

Like becoming an auto mechanic, one must become a specialized machinist to make significant money. For example, my dad was an electrical + A/C mechanic to whom dealers contracted work. It follows then one should become a independent contractor in nuclear, mining, or aerospace machining to make significant money.

For labor that requires training and certification, there can be a shortage of labor despite the pay. (In general, I agree with you, however).

Reply on news.ycombinator.com