> That’s true for AI, but it is not the right way to think about AGI. For AGI, the bet is that someone will build an AI capable enough to automate AI development. Once we get there it will pay for itself. The question is what the cost-speed tradeoff to get there looks like.
I don't think people are treating AI as a typical investment. They are valuing it as a potential replacement for like 95% of human workers. Once the plateau becomes obvious to even the biggest fanatics, people are going to realize all this money has been used to create really good chatbots that just make shit up 25% of the time. The whole sales pitch for the last 1-2 years has been that AGI is "just around the corner" and we can get there via the magic of exponential growth.