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> not transporting any gas and hadn't for a while

yeah, "a while" = 1 month. https://edition.cnn.com/2022/08/31/business/nord-stream-1-eu... "the most basic" aka cnn

What's the theory here? Traders were expecting the pipeline that had been dead for a month to come back to life, so when it exploded in dramatic fashion, their false hopes were dashed and caused a nonexistent surge?

It's not traders who speculate with the prices (which could also be), it's the countries who where buying enough supply for months. Yeah sure, it could trigger a surge in supply in order prevent a shortage.

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