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Unfortunately, I don't see any relevance in that argument, if you consider GPT-4 to be a breakthrough -- then sure, single breakthroughs happen, I am not arguing with that. Actually, same thing happened with self-driving: I don't think many people expected Tesla to drop FSD publicly back then.

Now, chain of breakthroughs happening in a small timeframe? Good luck with that.

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We have seen multiple massive AI breakthroughs in the last few years.

Which ones are you referring to?

Just to make it clear, I see only 1 breakthrough [0]. Everything that happened afterwards is just application of this breakthrough with different training sets / to different domains / etc.

[0]: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Attention_Is_All_You_Need

Autoregressive language models, the discovery of the Chinchilla scaling law, MoEs, supervised fine-tuning, RLHF, whatever was used to create OpenAI o1, diffusion models, AlphaGo, AlphaFold, AlphaGeometry, AlphaProof.

They are the same breakthrough applied to different domains, I don't see them as different. We will need a new breakthrough, not applying the same solution to new things.

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