If you look at the rate of progress over time you see a monotonically improving system that has no apparent halting of improvement. Likewise you have examples of competitors making progress as well in different areas each converging to a pretty, what appears to be, inevitable conclusion of full autonomy.

No one knows when that happens. But it feels pretty certain it’s happening.

I’ve been using FSD for 5 years now. It’s gone from glorified cruise control to something I generally don’t need to intervene with on city streets in that time. Will it improve that fast over the next five years? I doubt it. But it doesn’t have to because the residual problems are much fewer if harder. At this point, especially given the rate of AI improvement overall, I am confident in that five years those problems will largely if not entirely disappear.

Do I take a nap in the back seat? Of course not. Should it be marketed in its condition? I don’t know. But I do know the joint probability of me making a mistake as the attentive operator and it making a mistake while in control is significantly lower than either alone. The fact it makes mistakes at times is obviously concerning to me as a driver, and the fact I also make mistakes actually doesn’t concern me nearly as much as it should. However - I catch its mistakes, and it doesn’t make mine. Why is it rational to be more upset about the machine making a mistake than a human? It’s not - but humans are taught logic and are never rational.