Glad you made that work but that's counting steady job, steady health, no kids, cost of living staying the same the entire time.
If we are considering kids, presumably there is another partner (and income) to be added to the equation. While you may have half the amount saved due to the cost of raising children, your partner would have the other half.
8% was chosen to discount 3% inflation (cost of living) from SnP 500’s average 11% growth.
Median home price in the US peaked at $479,500.00 in 2022. By Q3 2023 it was down to $431,000.00. In Q3 2024 we reached $420,000.00.
But even using the index numbers it isn’t hard to see that housing prices do in fact go both up and down.