Hacker News Reader

Hacker News

Comment by Animats | Hacker News Reader

Full thread

Animats

Wars we can expect during the US next presidential administration:

- Ukraine vs Russia/N. Korea continues. Georgia may be pulled in next.

- Israel vs. Gaza/Iran/Lebanon continues to escalate.

- China vs. Taiwan slowly heats up.

- S. Korea vs. N. Korea/Russia - less likely.

- Ongoing US-Russia cyberwarfare.

Neither US presidential candidate is up to handling this.

View on HN

Necessity will find what is needed and the mental defectives will get shuttled out of the way if the entire system is facing existential crisis. The tragedy is that it is all avoidable but there is a lot of deck stacking to get one or more of these to pop off and people believe the official narratives still.

Why would Russia invade Ukraine ?

Why would China invade Taiwan ?

Can’t they make do with the resources they already have ?

It’s about power and legacy, not rationality and resources, for the examples you mention.

Putin says he consulted with Tsar Nicholas II and Catherine the Great. In Putin's view, Russia should re-establish the old Russian empire of the 19th century.

Those do seem to be Putin's primary motivations.

Though it's likely he sees access to resources (lithium, natural gas) as "gravy" on top of these concerns.

Both are because the country is worried about NATO encroachment. Taiwan is a key aspect of the US's plan of boxing china in from the straight of malacca all the way to the channel between korea and japan. Currently all the countries on that border lean US so its conceivable to pull the plan off and completely cut china off from maritime trade. If china controls taiwan the plan doesnt work.

Russia is similarly worried about the expansive flatland past the dnipro river.

Of course there are other historical reasons for the invasion and war is always a good way to boost the leaders approval so funny business often happens for little geopolitical reason at all.

Russia is similarly worried about the expansive flatland past the Dnipro river.

Except it's not - its current regime just pretends to be, for internal and external propaganda purposes. Ditto for NATO encroachment. It's just a bogeyman, nothing more.

The sibling comment encapsulates the regime's true motives quite succinctly:

https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=42037594

I think outright rejecting the reasoning is wrong. Of course you are right though that other reasons are far more important for putin. China has very legitimate reasons to go to war over the US's island chain policy as they are reliant on imported oil and the US has already shown a willingness to engage in cold war.

It isn't so much about outright rejecting the regime's stated rationale -- but simply not outright accepting its statements at face value, as many people seem overly ready and willing to do. As if they're forgotten that, in addition to being mean, dictators tend to lie a lot.

(This in reference to Ukraine; I don't really think too much about Taiwan).

China has very legitimate reasons to go to war over the US's island chain policy as they are reliant on imported oil

Though now that I do parse the second half of what you're saying - this is completely nuts of course, and just so happens to be nearly identical to Japan's rationale for attacking the US in WW2.

Geopolitics often is quite nuts. China isnt going to sit around and wait while theres an existential threat over their head

Geopolitics often is quite nuts.

But if you choose to applaud or legitimize this insanity -- that's on you.

Reply on news.ycombinator.com