Polling isn't merely a
reporting of raw responses, but a
calibrating of those responses to known bias factors. Those might be psychological (as you describe) where people are reluctant to reveal actual preferences, but also include numerous others:
- Who does or does not have a phone.
- Who will or won't answer a phone.
- Specific target demographics, under the rubric of "stratified random sampling".
Just a few off the top of my head.
As I'd mentioned upstream, political polling has regular calibration events called "elections", and following those events biases and adjustment factors, most falling out of statistical analysis and correlations, rather than "gut feels", are updated.
The problem for the US seems to be that the biases are accelerating well in advance of those adjustments, as my own poll-vs-vote analysis shows:
Thread: <https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=42060547>
Most robust analysis / results here: <https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=42064420>